Scandinavia Has Lost 1.2M Airline Seats Over Airspace Closures

Scandinavia has lost over 1.2 million departing airline seats as a result of the closure of airspace due to geopolitical instability and armed conflicts, according to a new report.

Researchers at SAS Group, the parent company of Scandinavian Airlines, found the region shed 700,000 departing seats to Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine between 2019 and 2024 and about 500,000 departing seats bound for Asia and the Middle East in that same timeframe.

The loss was mainly attributable to the Russia-Ukraine war and the decision by Russia to close its airspace to Western carriers as punishment for Western support for Ukraine, though conflicts in other parts of the world also limited flight operations.

SAS Group said that, because it can no longer fly directly over Russia, flights bound for Asia take more time and consume more fuel. As a result, the company is not offering non-stop flights to China in 2025.

The report also highlighted the advantage held by Chinese carriers, which are still allowed to fly over Russia and operate much as they did before the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. As of this year, the only way to fly directly between the Scandinavian countries and China is on a Chinese airline, and European travelers seeking shorter, cheaper flights are increasingly booking with Chinese carriers. SAS Group said Chinese airlines are scaling up capacity to accommodate the new customers.

“As long as Russian airspace remains closed, this imbalance will persist,” said Mads Brandstrup Nielsen, senior vice president of public affairs at SAS. “While we remain committed to connecting Scandinavia to Asia, the industry needs a level playing field to ensure long-term sustainability, fair competition, and reliable connectivity for our customers.”

Redrawing the Map

Additionally, Northern and Eastern European cities are losing their position as a connector between Europe and Asia. The SAS report noted that Helsinki was the major hub for Scandinavians flying east to China, but since Finnair was banned from Russia, much of the traffic has shifted south to Dubai, Doha, and Istanbul, where carriers can still use Russian airspace. This trend was exacerbated by the cancellation of a Frankfurt-Beijing route operated by Lufthansa in November 2024.

The report also linked airspace closures to an increase in shipping costs for cargo moving between Europe and Asia.

Russia closed its airspace to carriers based in the European Union and the United States in 2022 during the opening stages of its war against Ukraine. As a result of the conflict, Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova have also greatly limited commercial air traffic.

SAS and other Western carriers have also cut off or greatly limited routes to some areas of the Middle East due to escalating conflicts there, including the Syrian civil war, clashes between Israel and Lebanon, and missile attacks between Israel and Iran. Scandinavian Airlines suspended service to Tehran in 2021 and Tel Aviv in 2023.