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The Science Behind Cheap Airline Tickets

A pragmatic take on one of the most common questions in the airline industry

Data is a powerful tool in the aviation industry. (Photo: Shutterstock | Ekapol Sirachainan)

There are many myths circulating online about how to find cheap airline tickets. While some tips hold true, others can be misleading or only apply to specific airlines or regions. This article offers a pragmatic guide on when to book your flights for the best deals.

Understanding the Booking Curve

Different destinations follow their own patterns for booking and price increases, often referred to as the ‘booking curve.’ Some markets might start picking up sooner than others, while others are shooting up exponentially at the very last minute.

The best rule of thumb is that the longer the journey and the more expensive the tickets are at the baseline, the earlier they will be purchased. Generally speaking travel to and from Australia or intercontinental travel to and from North America, Europe, and North East Asia will be affected first. If the flight lasts more than 12 hours, be ready to book as soon as 10-12 months in advance to get a deal.

For intracontinental trips or travel shorter than four hours, something opposite might be true. Well in advance, the demand for such travel is so low that the flights are not even being optimized yet for the best price to market. Low-cost carriers might even gauge the early demand to decide whether the route should be maintained or cut preemptively.

Booking with full-service carriers lowers that risk as, on a short-haul flight, there are probably already long-haul connecting passengers booked. If you are looking for a good deal on a short trip, window-shopping around 6-8 months before departure is a good practice. Some markets might hit the lowest point at the three months mark.

Sunshine and Christmas

The biggest influences on ticket prices at a macro scale are seasonality and events. When they come together, it is every man for themselves.

The Northern Hemisphere summer is by far the most impactful seasonality theme. For most destinations, that will be the prime time to visit. At the same time, probably most of the flights will be departing with a sizable load and airlines will put a lot of effort into optimizing this period. The probability of finding a great deal is very limited but in this case, if you book early, you might just get an “okay” price.

The middle of the summer will mean vacations for most. Anybody with a family will need to take that into consideration, similarly to young adults looking for summer travel. You might try your way into booking some destination that are equally as good at the very beginning or towards the end of the season.

One day that there is no way of getting around is Christmas, which is the biggest surge in demand happening in the middle of the otherwise lean season for most airlines. With other events of similar magnitude, there is usually some wiggle room for you to exploit. Try to predict what would be the ideal pattern to visit the country and work against it. Visiting Japan just after the Cherry Blossom season might give you a perfect entry for the destination that tends to be expensive when flying long-haul.

The vast differences in seasonality also open an interesting avenue for deal-hunters. Not many flights will be less in demand than the first flight of the season to a popular summer destination on a seasonal route. If you are willing to cover some distance on the ground, why not take a year-round route to Rome, but travel back on the first flight of the seasonal route to Naples? Not all airlines will do it but some might give you the best deal you could find during summer.

Optimization Gimmicks

A common belief is that Tuesday nights are the best time to book flights, but while this might have some basis in airline pricing systems, it’s not a reliable rule to follow.

The days to travel on the other hand are a visible pattern. You can track your own flights and conclude yourself. In the majority of the world, the Saturday-Sunday weekend is followed. For this reason, you will see the most demanded flights to be Friday and Sunday followed by Monday and Saturday. Those days just make the most sense when travelling either for leisure or business. Being a contrarian pays off in this regard as well. You are likely to find better prices for Tuesday-Thursday travel.

Your Best Shot

Many are taken aback by airlines promoting cheap fares but not making them available for purchase. That frustration often comes when we follow the patterns of high demand mentioned above. They are not likely to discount the seats they know they can sell for a premium.

To increase your chances of finding a great deal, try to book outside peak travel periods and take advantage of promotional offers. Airlines are more likely to discount seats that are hard to sell, especially when marketing campaigns are involved. The more distant the trip, the further in advance it should be taken care of. Ultimately, it’s just business; empty seats aren’t profitable for airlines, so they’d rather offer discounts than let them go unsold.

Filip Kopeć

Author

  • Filip Kopeć

    A passionate aviation enthusiast that started off his career as an aerospace engineer, but found his true calling on the commercial side of the airline business. Now as a finance guy among avgeeks and an avgeek among finance guys, he has experience working in the Revenue Divisions of three airlines. In his spare time he enjoys traveling, but admittedly sometimes is more about the journey than the destination.

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