The carrier has seen a 9% drop in Canadian passenger volume, far less than the 70% bookings drop projected by previous industry reports.
A United Airlines Boeing 737-700 (Photo: AirlineGeeks | William Derrickson)
Leadership at United painted a different picture regarding declining Canadian passenger travel to the U.S. during the company’s recent Q1 earnings conference call.
Andrew Nocella, United’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer, said the airline has seen a 9% decrease year-over-year in Canadian origin passenger volumes during Wednesday’s call.
The drop in Canadian passenger travel, while still substantial, contrasts with previous industry reporting that indicated much larger volume decreases for U.S. carriers through September 2025. Market analysis by OAG published in March stated that future flight bookings between the U.S. and Canada have “collapsed” by over 70% in every month through the end of September.
Nocella also said that European passenger bookings to the U.S. are also 6% lower than last year at United – though those two drops may prove inconsequential.
“For United, U.S. origin demand has more than compensated for these reductions,” Nocella said during the Q1 call. “As we think about the impact that potential recessions could have on business traffic, it is important to note that relative to pre-pandemic, our revenue makeup is less reliant on this revenue source.”
While Nocella said business revenue is down eight points for United’s passenger revenue, so far the carrier has “seen no deterioration in high-end consumers’ willingness to purchase a premium experience.”
“We attribute this to the fact that the economic uncertainty has a larger impact on more budget-minded discretionary travelers than those seeking a premium experience,” he continued.
In the Delta Q1 2025 conference call held on April 9, Delta President Glen Hauenstein said the carrier has seen “a significant drop-off in bookings” in Canada, though no further data was presented.
“In Mexico, it is kind of a mixed bag,” he added. “Some of the markets are performing better, some are performing worse. I think there is a lot of pressure on VFR [visiting family and relatives] more than business traffic to Mexico right now. So we are navigating through those waters. And I think we will be looking at Canada and Mexico as places that we probably want to reduce our capacity levels as we move forward.”
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