Analysts find passenger bookings for U.S.-Canada routes through September 2025 are down by 70%.
An Air Canada Express Bombardier CRJ-900 operated by Jazz Aviation (Photo: AirlineGeeks | William Derrickson)
A new aviation market analysis by OAG on Wednesday details a downward trend in demand in recent weeks and “a sharp decline in forward bookings” despite airline capacity looking largely unchanged in the most recent weekly update.
Regarding capacity, over 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the U.S. and Canada through October, according to the report comparing scheduled one-way seat filings on March 3 and March 24.
“The most noticeable cuts are in July and August – the two peak summer season months – where airlines have cut capacity by some 3.5%,” the report stated.
Future bookings are much bleaker. The report added that future flight bookings between the U.S. and Canada have “collapsed” by over 70% in every month through the end of September.
“This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute,” according to the OAG report.
Using OAG’s March 2024 and March 2025 future bookings as a snapshot, September alone is down over 167,000 scheduled flights.
United and Air Canada have already reduced their transborder operations between the U.S. and Canada for the upcoming summer season. Earlier this month, Canadian ultra-low-cost carrier Flair cancelled three of its U.S. routes amid deteriorating U.S.-Canada relations.
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