The global airline industry will post record profits next year despite delays in new aircraft deliveries and other headwinds, the International Air Transport Association forecast this week.
The trade group said the airline sector will generate a total net profit of $41 billion in 2026, up from $39.5 billion in 2025. Operating profits will climb from $67 billion to $72.8 billion, the IATA predicted, while total industry revenues will reach just over $1 trillion, up 4.5% over the current year.
The industry’s net profit margin is expected to remain stable at 3.9%. Net profit per passenger transported is expected to be $7.90, unchanged from 2025 but below a high of $8.50 in 2023.
In a statement, IATA General Director Willie Walsh said the forecast is “welcome news” considering the various challenges the industry faces, including “bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens.”
“Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” Walsh said.
Some factors weighing in favor of the airlines are expected growth in revenue passenger kilometers, stable GDP, easing inflation, and strong results from cargo operations.
Walsh singled out cargo’s performance as “particularly impressive” given the economic turbulence of 2025.
“As trade flows adapt to a protectionist U.S. tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments,” he said. “Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the U.S. found new markets. The critical role of air cargo is front and center as the global economy adjusts to new realities.”
Still, the IATA warned that most of the factors dragging down growth in the airline industry will not meaningfully improve in 2026. The global backlog in aircraft will continue to grow, infrastructure constraints will likely persist, and regulatory costs, particularly in Europe, will remain high, the trade group said.
Carriers are also expected to run up against rising aircraft maintenance costs, meagre gains in fuel efficiency, and stagnating employment productivity.
