Commercial airlines could be in line to benefit from the recent boom in weight loss drugs.
Analysts at Jefferies said this week that widespread adoption of GLP-1 drugs in pill form could meaningfully reduce the weight of the average U.S. passenger flight. With a lighter load, carriers would not have to use as much jet fuel to power their aircraft, they said, resulting in savings.
“A slimmer society = lower fuel consumption,” the firm wrote in a note to clients. “Airlines have a history of being vigilant around aircraft weight savings, from olives (pitless, of course) to paper stock.”
Jefferies estimates that a 10% reduction in average passenger weight could lower fuel costs by as much as 1.5%. Those savings could boost earnings per share by around 4%.
Across the major U.S. airlines, fuel accounts for about 20% of operational expenses.
While any future savings is purely speculative, Jefferies said a 2% decline in average passenger weight could translate to EPS gains of about 3.5% for United, 2.8% for Delta, 11.7% for American, and 4.2% for Southwest. Those calculations were based on the carriers’ current operations and exposure to changes in fuel costs.
Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk recently won approval for a pill version of GLP-1 drug semaglutide, and some patients are already getting access to it. A similar product from Eli Lilly is in the works and could be available within months.
