Donald Trump is no stranger to the airline business, having touched several facets of the industry during his career. His late brother was a TWA pilot, he spearheaded the Trump Shuttle venture in the early 1990s, and orchestrated a $62 billion airline bailout during the COVID-19 pandemic.
But, amid many ongoing airline labor disputes and an ever-evolving GOP position toward unions, a lot of questions remain on both sides of the bargaining table. Several groups remain in talks over new collective bargaining agreements, some of which are under National Mediation Board oversight.
Although the federal agency is officially independent, its board members are nominated by the president. The current three-person board is made up of two Democrats and a single Republican, all of whom have terms expiring during Trump’s upcoming presidency.
In 2023 alone, the small agency closed 19 airline-related labor cases. While several blockbuster pilot labor deals were finalized in the years following the pandemic, a number of contracts remain open, including those of United’s nearly 26,000 flight attendants and pilots at Spirit, Frontier, JetBlue, FedEx, and Allegiant.
Uncertainty Ahead
While Biden was largely viewed as one of the most pro-union presidents in recent history, he stayed far away from labor disputes sanctioned by the Railway Labor Act, which also covers air carriers. As bargaining heats up and the RLA’s Section 6 bargaining process is incrementally exhausted, it puts the sitting president in an extreme bind.
On one side of the coin, releasing a party from federal mediation could put strain on the economy. Conversely, barring a union group from striking carries enormous political liability.
We saw this in 2022 when Congress passed a bill to avoid a railroad worker strike. Earlier this year, flight attendants at American Airlines faced months of federal mediation before finally signing a deal in September.
In these cases, Biden praised the outcomes but did little to actually broker deals at the bargaining table. The White House tried to keep these disputes at arm’s length to avoid political turmoil.
Things could be different under a Trump administration, though. Traditionally, Republican presidents have been unafraid to take a heavy-handed approach to aviation labor, with a prime example being Ronald Reagan’s mass firing of air traffic controllers in 1981.
A Changing Union Stance?
The jury might still be out on how the GOP is changing its stance on unions. Notably, Teamsters President Sean O’Brien gave a fiery speech at the Republican National Convention but stopped short of endorsing any candidate.
The Teamsters’ airline division represents about 80,000 aviation employees across trades, including pilots, flight attendants, and mechanics.
Union members have been a long-standing Democrat stronghold. This trend has shifted, and the Trump-Vance ticket garnered more union interest during this election cycle.
As the airline industry bounced back from the COVID-era demand trough, unions – namely pilots – had enormous bargaining power, with some securing pay increases well above 30%. Many of these agreements will reopen for negotiations during Trump’s second term.
Delta’s multibillion-dollar pilot agreement becomes amendable in December 2026, and both United and American will follow in 2027.
The Air Line Pilots Association, which represents the majority of U.S. airline pilots, came out with a statement on Wednesday congratulating Trump.
“ALPA stands ready to work with the president-elect and the newly elected Congress on continuing our country’s important efforts to keep flying safe and advancing the piloting profession,” the statement said.
As more labor disputes continue to heat up and other agreements become amendable, the Trump administration’s response will set the tone for the GOP’s evolving union stance.
Editor’s Note: This story was updated on Friday, Oct. 8, 2024 at 3:52 p.m. ET to add FedEx pilots who are still without an updated contract.
