TSA: Holiday Travel Could Break Records

The agency expects to screen about 44.3 million people through Jan. 4, 2026.

Terminal in Miami
A terminal in Miami. (Photo: Shutterstock | Khairil Azhar Junos)
Gemini Sparkle

Key Takeaways:

  • This holiday travel season (Dec. 19 - early Jan. 2026) is projected to be one of the busiest on record, with TSA anticipating 44.3 million passengers and Airlines For America forecasting a record 52.6 million flyers.
  • The peak travel day is expected to be Sunday, Dec. 28, with approximately 2.86 million passengers, followed closely by Dec. 27 and 29.
  • The TSA states it is well-prepared for the surge in traffic, citing recent policy changes like Real ID requirements and the end of mandatory shoe removal to improve the travel experience.
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The Transportation Security Administration expects to screen about 44.3 million passengers through early January, a figure that if realized would make this year’s holiday travel season one of the busiest on record.

The agency’s projections cover the weeks between Dec. 19 and Jan. 4, 2026. The single busiest day in that span will be Sunday, Dec. 28, TSA said, when about 2.86 million people in the U.S. will board an airplane. Saturday, Dec. 27, and Monday, Dec. 29, will be close behind in terms of passenger volume, according to the agency’s forecast.

The single busiest travel day last year was Dec. 28, when TSA screened around 2.85 million passengers.

TSA officials said Monday that the agency is well prepared for the surge in traffic. They also noted recent changes in airport policies – including Real ID requirements and the end of mandatory shoe removal at security checkpoints – that they said will make the flying experience safer and more convenient.

Industry trade group Airlines For America has estimated that about 52.6 million people will fly with a U.S. carrier between Dec. 19 and Jan. 5, 2026. If reached, that number would set a record for the holiday travel period.

Zach Vasile

Zach Vasile is a writer and editor covering news in all aspects of commercial aviation. He has reported for and contributed to the Manchester Journal Inquirer, the Hartford Business Journal, the Charlotte Observer, and the Washington Examiner, with his area of focus being the intersection of business and government policy.
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