Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) first vice president, Captain Wendy Morse, said the airline industry did not experience a true pilot shortage in recent years, instead attributing hiring challenges to what she called a prolonged “pipeline problem” caused by low regional airline wages, high training costs, and repeated shocks to the aviation labor market.

“There is no pilot shortage. There was never a pilot shortage,” Morse said during Skift’s Aviation Forum last week. She argued that the decline in new aviators stemmed from industry conditions that made flying a less viable career path. 

“Salaries [were] so low that nobody wanted to be a pilot anymore,” she said, adding that the post-9/11 downturn and the bankruptcy era at major U.S. carriers discouraged a generation of prospective pilots.

Morse offered an example from her own family, recalling when one of her sons considered entering the profession. After weighing a high university tuition bill against starting regional airline pay of around $20,000 per year at the time, he ultimately chose a different path. “If you’d like to be a pilot for the love of flying, go be a pilot,” she told him, but added that the career outlook then was vastly different from what new aviators encounter today.

She said similar disruptions appeared during the COVID-19 pandemic when flight training slowed, and new-hire pipelines tightened. “Everything kinda shut down… the pipeline wasn’t there,” she said.

Supply-and-Demand Gap

Industry forecasts continue to show a measurable supply-and-demand gap, even as conditions improve. Oliver Wyman’s latest North American outlook projects a shortage of roughly 13,300 pilots by 2032. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates about 18,200 annual openings for commercial pilots through the next decade, largely driven by retirements and long-term demand.

Morse’s comments align with earlier statements from ALPA leadership, who have repeatedly argued that market conditions — not an absolute lack of pilots — shaped hiring trends. In an April interview with AirlineGeeks, ALPA’s president said claims of a nationwide pilot shortage were exaggerated and pointed instead to compensation and training barriers. 

Some airline leaders have voiced similar assessments. Sun Country CEO Jude Bricker said in May that the pilot shortage was effectively over for his carrier, noting that training throughput and hiring had stabilized and that the airline was no longer constrained by cockpit staffing. 

Morse said the present-day environment looks markedly different from the conditions that shaped earlier downturns. “As long as you keep an airline industry that people want to work in — and we have that right now,” she continued.

She added that financial performance at major carriers has strengthened in recent years, calling the shift “a nice turnaround” compared with earlier portions of her four-decade career at United.

ALPA represents around 80,000 pilots in North America, including those at United and Delta.